Mesoscale Discussion… for Flooding…

This particular mesoscale discussion is courtesy of the Weather Prediction Center…

mcd0022

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0022
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
759 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2013

AREAS AFFECTED……NORTHEASTERN AL/NORTHERN GA/EASTERN TN

CONCERNING…HEAVY RAINFALL…FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 281159Z – 281429Z

SUMMARY…STRONG CONVECTION MAINTAINED FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER AREAS OF NORTHERN
GEORGIA THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION…A NOCTURNAL COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS TO HAVE MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY PER IR SATELLITE TRENDS
AND LIGHTNING DATA. THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THIS AXIS OF
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS AN AREA OF DIMINISHED 3-HOUR FFG
VALUES. IT APPEARS THIS THREAT SHOULD MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. THE 850-MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO PUMP SOME
OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY…MOST OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS IN 6 HOURS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
SUPPORT INCLUDES THE 00Z SPC WRF/00Z HIGH-RES WRF-NMM ALONG WITH
DETERMINISTIC RUNS FROM THE 06Z NAM/GFS.

RUBIN-OSTER
ATTN…WFO…GSP…MRX…FFC…BMX…HUN…

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Posted on April 28, 2013, in Alabama, Georgia, Mesoscale Discussion, Tennessee and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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