#OHwx #Ohio Hail Threat for Monday
The last couple of runs of the NAM are suggesting potential for a large hail threat across all of Northwest Ohio on Monday. Below you will see this evening’s NAM soundings for Defiance, Findlay, Lima, and Toledo. These particular soundings I am going to show you here are valid at 5:00 PM EDT Monday…
Here are some important things to keep in mind when looking at these SKEW-T sounding for forecasting a large hail threat:
1) The heights of the 0°C wet bulb/freezing levels, which are noted in the rectangles, are between 9,000 to 10,000 feet above the surface. That would offer the highest chance for large hail to form.
2) Note the gap of the temperature (right line) and the dewpoint line (left line) about 10,000 to 15,000 feet above the ground. Again, it would favor allowing large hailstones to form within the thunderstorm if the storms do develop.
3) The amount of surface based instability (also known as the CAPE), range in this situation from roughly 3,800 to 5,000 J/kg. These high CAPE values will allow the size of the hailstones to grow within the thunderstorms much easier.
4) Also note the precipiable water values. They are all below 1.50 inches. In this particular setup, the lower water values actually indicates the potential for large hail.
We will continue to watch the model trends this weekend. But as of right now, the chance for severe weather on Monday is fairly high. Large, damaging hail, along with damaging straight-line winds, will be the main severe weather hazards. Stay tuned.