Category Archives: Hurricane

Early Evening Update on #Sandy… #hurricane

Let us bring you up to speed on what the current forecast model runs are saying about Hurricane Sandy. Most of the model runs are in general agreement.

Latest maps below:

GFS:

NAM:

Canadian:

Navy NOGAPS:

European:

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest on Hurricane Sandy.

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Thursday Afternoon Weather Update… #OHwx #INwx #MIwx

GFS:

ECMWF:

Canadian:

Navy NOGAPS:

There has been better consistency with the last two to three days worth of model runs. Confidence is growing. However, things could still change. We will keep you up to date here on the Weather or Knot Blog. Stay tuned.

11:00 AM EDT Update on #Hurricane #Sandy…

Stay with Weather or Knot for continuing coverage of Hurricane Sandy and its potential impacts on the US East Coast.

5 PM EDT Update on #Hurricane #Sandy…

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

…SANDY EMERGING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF JAMAICA…

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…18.3N 76.6W
ABOUT 25 MI…40 KM NNE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 125 MI…200 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…970 MB…28.64 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY…

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA TO FLAGLER BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY…LAS TUNAS…GRANMA…SANTIAGO DE
CUBA…HOLGUIN…AND GUANTANAMO
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* HAITI
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA…IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA….IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES…INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS…PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES…PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
AT 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH…LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH…22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT…MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT…AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH…130 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SANDY MOVES
OVER EASTERN CUBA…WITH SOME RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED AFTER SANDY
MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES…45 KM…FROM
THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES…220 KM. KINGSTON JAMAICA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 44 MPH…70 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM JAMAICA IS 970 MB…28.64 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND…HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN
CUBA THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

RAINFALL…SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA…HAITI…THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES…ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS…WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE…THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

JAMAICA…1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA 3 TO 5 FT
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS…5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA…1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY…800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY…1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest on Sandy.

Rain, Rain, Rain Go Away…

Storm QPF

As much as I would like to believe that is going to happen this weekend, it’s not. Much of western Ohio, all of Indiana, and Illinois could see rainfall on the order of three to six inches by Labor Day morning.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest weather information.

11am Hurricane Isaac Update…

Watches/Warnings Update…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER…
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS…LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN…AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA
BORDER
* MORGAN CITY TO SABINE PASS TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF SABINE PASS

11:00 AM stats on Isaac…

LOCATION…29.6N 90.7W
ABOUT 0 MI…0 KM N OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 45 MI…75 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…972 MB…28.70 INCHES

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest information on Isaac.

11pm Hurricane Isaac Update…

Watches/Warnings Update…

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER…
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS…LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN…AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN FLORIDA
* MORGAN CITY TO SABINE PASS TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…

* EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO JUST WEST OF SABINE PASS

11:00 pm stats on Isaac…

LOCATION…29.0N 89.7W
ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…80 MPH…130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…968 MB…28.59 INCHES

Stay with Weather or Knot for continuing coverage of Isaac.

Afternoon Radar Update 2:47pm edt

Isaac is now beginning to show up on weather radar. This is the view from Mobile, Alabama at mid-afternoon. Conditions will continue to go down hill along the Louisiana/Mississippi/Alabama Gulf Coast through the afternoon into the evening hours.

Stay with Weather or Knot for continuing coverage of Isaac.

2:00pm Update on Hurricane Isaac…

No changes to the watches/warnings on this update.

Numbers on Isaac…

LOCATION…28.4N 88.7W
ABOUT 55 MI…85 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 135 MI…220 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.79 INCHES

Discussion…

AT 100 PM CDT…1800 UTC…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
28.4 NORTH…LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST. ISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH…17 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK…THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISAAC SHOULD REACH THE
COASTLINE OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH…120 KM/H…WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ISAAC IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
UNTIL ISAAC MAKES LANDFALL. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER
LANDFALL OCCURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES…95 KM…
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES…295 KM FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER…WHERE A NOAA OBSERVING SITE AT SOUTHWEST PASS
LOUISIANA RECENTLY MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH…93
KM/H…AND A GUST TO 76 MPH…122 KM/H…AT AN ELEVATION OF 80
FEET.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WAS 975 MB…28.79 INCHES.

Stay with Weather or Knot for continuing coverage of Isaac.

Finally, the Time has Come…

HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1120 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

…RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ISAAC FINALLY ACHIEVES HURRICANE
STATUS…

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC HAVE INCREASED
TO 75 MPH…120 KM/H. ON THIS BASIS…ISAAC IS BEING UPGRADED TO
A HURRICANE.

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM CDT…1620 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…28.1N 88.6W
ABOUT 75 MI…115 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 160 MI…250 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…975 MB…28.79 INCHES

Stay with Weather or Knot for continuing coverage of Isaac.

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