Category Archives: Kentucky

Severe Thunderstorm Watch (Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia)

Severe T-Storm Watch OH IN KY WV PA

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST INDIANA
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OHIO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
PARTS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ATHENS OHIO TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF AKRON OHIO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION…THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION
OF AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON …WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD OR EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

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Tornado Warning Hardin IL Pope IL Crittenden KY Livingston KY #ILwx #KYwx

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
250 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
HARDIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…
SOUTHEASTERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…
NORTHWESTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY…
LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY…

* UNTIL 330 PM CST.

* AT 243 PM CST…RADAR STILLA INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6
MILES EAST OF BROOKPORT…OR 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF PADUCAH…MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG ROTATION
NEAR THE SURFACE.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE…
BURNA…SALEM…JOY…ROSICLARE…CARRSVILLE…ELIZABETHTOWN…
GROSS AND CAVE-IN-ROCK.

Tornado Warning Update… #ILwx #KYwx

ILC127-151-KYC139-145-122100-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130112T2100Z/
MASSAC IL-POPE IL-LIVINGSTON KY-MCCRACKEN KY-
228 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR POPE AND SOUTHEASTERN
MASSAC COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…AND MCCRACKEN AND SOUTHWESTERN
LIVINGSTON COUNTIES IN WESTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 300 PM CST…

AT 226 PM CST…RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LONE
OAK…MOVING NORTHEAST BETWEEM 30 AND 40 MPH. THE STORM IS
ACCELERATING IN FORWARD SPEED.

THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF…SHORT LIVED
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. BE PREPARED TO SEEK
SHELTER SHOULD A TORNADO BE OBSERVED…OR IF THERE IS AN UPGRADE TO A
TORNADO WARNING FOR YOUR AREA.

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
219 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
SOUTHEASTERN MASSAC COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…
SOUTHEASTERN POPE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…
NORTHEASTERN CARLISLE COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY…
NORTHWESTERN GRAVES COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY…
SOUTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY…
MCCRACKEN COUNTY IN WESTERN KENTUCKY…

* UNTIL 300 PM CST.

* AT 214 PM CST…RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LOVELACEVILLE…OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LONE OAK…
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNED AREA INCLUDE…
LONE OAK…PADUCAH…REIDLAND…BROOKPORT AND LEDBETTER.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 24 BETWEEN EXITS 3 AND 11.

Saturday Morning Weather Update… #INwx #KYwx #MIwx #OHwx

We are currently tracking the potential for a snowstorm just after Christmas here in the lower Great Lakes region. Let’s take a look at the Hazardous Weather Outlooks from the National Weather Service Forecast Offices in Cleveland, Northern Indiana, and Wilmington, OH…

Cleveland:

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036>038-047-230930-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
426 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO…NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST ARRIVING LATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Northern Indiana:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
437 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-230945-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MICHIGAN CITY…LA PORTE…SOUTH BEND…
MISHAWAKA…ELKHART…GOSHEN…LAGRANGE…TOPEKA…ANGOLA…
KENDALLVILLE…LIGONIER…AUBURN…GARRETT…KNOX…NORTH JUDSON…
WINAMAC…FRANCESVILLE…PLYMOUTH…BREMEN…ROCHESTER…WARSAW…
WINONA LAKE…COLUMBIA CITY…SOUTH WHITLEY…FORT WAYNE…
MONTICELLO…BROOKSTON…LOGANSPORT…PERU…WABASH…
NORTH MANCHESTER…HUNTINGTON…BLUFFTON…OSSIAN…DECATUR…
BERNE…MARION…HARTFORD CITY…MONTPELIER…PORTLAND…NILES…
BENTON HARBOR…ST. JOSEPH…BUCHANAN…DOWAGIAC…CASSOPOLIS…
STURGIS…THREE RIVERS…COLDWATER…HILLSDALE…BRYAN…WAUSEON…
ARCHBOLD…DEFIANCE…NAPOLEON…PAULDING…ANTWERP…OTTAWA…
PANDORA…VAN WERT…DELPHOS…LIMA
437 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012 /337 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO…
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW MONDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS STORM REMAINS UNCERTAIN…ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

Wilmington, OH:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
515 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-231015-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
515 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA…SOUTHEAST INDIANA…NORTHEAST KENTUCKY…NORTHERN
KENTUCKY…CENTRAL OHIO…MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO…SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO…SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH KENTUCKY INTO WEST
VIRGINIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT…SPREADING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE ATMOSPHERE MAY SUPPORT SOME FREEZING
RAIN AND OR SNOW.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
CENTER OF THE STORM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP COLD AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY…WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED TO BE SNOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS STORM.

THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF EITHER OR BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD
CHANGE…SO STAY TUNED TO THE LAST FORECASTS FOR THE MOST UP TO
DATE INFORMATION.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest information on this pending snowstorm.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch (Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee) #INwx #KYwx #TNwx

Svr T-Storm Watch IN KY TN

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 683
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN…CENTRAL…AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
800 PM EST.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF
LEXINGTON KENTUCKY TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION…SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG AND E OF
SSW-NNE CONFLUENCE ZONE NOW OVER WRN KY/TN. ACTIVITY LIKELY IS BEING
FOSTERED BY SFC HEATING AND MID LVL COLD ADVECTION/ASCENT DOWNSTREAM
FROM LEAD UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER SE MO…AND UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE IN
WRN MO. AMPLE DEEP SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SUSTAINED
STORMS WITH SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WIND. A TORNADO OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT…ESPECIALLY WITH ANY LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE
STORMS IN SRN HALF OF WW…BUT RELATIVELY WEAK/VEERED LOW-LVL FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT SUCH THREAT.

Tornado Watch… #ILwx #MOwx #TNwx #ARwx #KYwx

ww0677_overview_big

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
210 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 210 PM UNTIL 900
PM CST.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE
GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO 25 MILES WEST OF PINE BLUFF ARKANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION…THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY OVER CENTRAL
AR ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN. A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF
A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

Severe Weather Risk… #ARwx #KYwx #MSwx #MOwx #TNwx #TXwx

day1otlk_1300

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted parts of the mid-south into eastern Texas today for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms today. All modes of severe weather will be in play today (isolated tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds).

Let us take a look at a few of the parameters that will be the main factors for possible severe weather to happen today…

0zNAMdewpoint 12.9.2012

Issue #1: The first thing we look at here for any severe weather is the amount of moisture available. There are projected dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s today in the severe weather risk area. Also, note the sharp graident of the dewpoints. Areas in Northwest Arkansas, down into Southeast Oklahoma, and North Central Texas have dewpoint values in the 30s and 40s. That is one indicator that a strong cold front will be moving through the region today.

0zNAMcape 12.9.2012

Issue #2: The next thing we look at for possible severe thunderstorm development is the CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy). Note the green area down in the severe weather risk area. Although the values are only between 1,000 and 2,000 J/Kg, that amount is more than enough during this particular Winter severe weather season to get thunderstorms forming.

0zNAMhelicity 12.9.2012

Issue #3: The third and final issue we look at is the Helicity. This basically shows where the winds are more likely changing with height (for example, winds from the southeast at the surface, and west winds about 10,000-18,000 feet off the ground). This aids in storms getting rotation. Note the areas of orange in the severe thunderstorm risk area. This area indicates where the best potential is for rotating storms.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest severe weather information.

Midday Weather Recap #INwx #KYwx #MIwx #OHwx

The midday satellite picture is showing plenty of clear skies here in the lower Great Lakes, especially in Indiana and Ohio. However, note the clouds down along the Ohio River in South Central Indiana and much of northern Kentucky. Those clouds are in advance of a low pressure area that will bring some light snow down along the Upper Ohio River Valley into much of Kentucky in the next 24-30 hours.

For now, there is a clear scan on weather radar across the Lower Great Lakes region. As noted earlier in this blog posting, some light snow will be showing up on radar. This will occur later tonight, and into Tuesday morning as well.

The surface low pressure area you see there on the morning surface will be the one that could result in light accumulating snowfall across the Middle and Upper Ohio River Valley tonight into tomorrow morning.

This is this morning’s 7:00 AM Global Forecast System (GFS) model run showing the snow potential in the Ohio Valley. Although amounts will be light (as noted above), it will be enough so that you need to use caution on the roads as you head to your destination overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest weather information.

Tornado Watch AR MO TN IL KY MS… #ARwx #MOwx #TNwx #ILwx #KYwx #MSwx

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 667
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 525
PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 130 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PINE BLUFF
ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 666…

DISCUSSION…TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY IN NUMBER AND EXTENT
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS…ESPECIALLY FROM S CNTRL AR NEWD INTO SE
MO/SRN IL…AS LEADING EDGE OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS.
STRENGTHENING…DEEP-VEERING WIND PROFILES…WITH 700 MB SPEEDS AOA
45 KTS…COUPLED WITH 40+ KT WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW…MAY
SUPPORT A FEW LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS POSING A SVR WIND…HAIL…AND
TORNADO THREAT THROUGH LATE TNGT. IN THE MEAN TIME…OTHER STORMS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING ALONG SFC COLD FRONT IN NW AR. THESE
TOO MAY EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR SVR WIND…HAIL…AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO. FINALLY…SQLN WITH EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS
EXTENDING FROM S CNTRL MO NEWD TO NEAR ST LOUIS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE ENEWD…WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED SMALL SCALE CIRCULATIONS/BRIEF TORNADOES.

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