Category Archives: Maryland

Wet and Windy Start to Next Week Looking More Likely… #OHwx #INwx #MIwx #MDwx #PAwx #WVwx

Here are my two cents on this pending major storm for the lower Great Lakes region. We are starting to transition from possibly a snow threat (that threat is very low right now, and was very low to begin with), to a strong wind/rain storm. Let’s get right into the maps.

1. TEMPERATURES: We are looking here at the 0z North American Model (NAM) data. While we will more than likely remain above freezing here in the lower Great Lakes, our neighbors to the south and the east could see plenty of snow. The pink streak there in far western Maryland and much of eastern West Virginia could be below freezing by early Tuesday morning.

2. PRECIPITATION: Note the two color scales to the right of the projected radar image early Tuesday morning. While it will be mainly rain here in northern Ohio, northeast Indiana, and all of lower Michigan, the  white, blue, and red reflectivity over in parts of eastern Ohio down into West Virginia could be seeing snowy conditions. This could still change.

3. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION: Note the areas in purple to light blue. This is where the best chance for accumulating snowfall. That facet of the storm will more than likely stay down along the upper Ohio River Valley into much of West Virginia, far southwestern Pennsylvania, and into far western Maryland. This is the projected snowfall forecast through early Tuesday morning. The actual snowfall totals will be higher than shown here.

4. THE WIND: One of the other facets for this particular storm will be the wind. Once again, this is the projected wind forecast valid early Tuesday morning. Note the scale to your right. The blue to lighter blue color represent winds sustained at 20-30 mph. However, remember this projected wind forecast only goes out to early Tuesday morning. The wind will be very fiesty throughout the entire day on Tuesday.

Stay with Weather or Knot for continuing coverage of this pending storm.

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Tornado Warning Update Harford County, #Maryland… #MDwx

MDC025-192330-
/O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-121019T2330Z/
HARFORD MD-
712 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR HARFORD
COUNTY…

AT 709 PM EDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR JARRETTSVILLE…OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEL AIR…
AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
NORRISVILLE…
PYLESVILLE…
WHITEFORD…
STREET…
CARDIFF…

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE…MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM. TAKE COVER NOW.

THIS IS AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS STATEMENT ISSUED. THIS IS A
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED TORNADO. THERE IS NO CONFIRMATION FROM SPOTTERS OR
LAW ENFORCEMENT AT THIS TIME.

Confirmed Tornado near Jarrettsville, MD at 7:03pm edt… #MDwx

MDC025-192330-
/O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0044.000000T0000Z-121019T2330Z/
HARFORD MD-
704 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR HARFORD
COUNTY…

AT 703 PM EDT…A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR JARRETTSVILLE…
OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEL AIR…AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
CHROME HILL…
ROCKS…
NORRISVILLE…
PYLESVILLE…
STREET…
WHITEFORD…
CARDIFF…

Tornado Warning Baltimore MD Hanford MD… #MDwx

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
652 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHWESTERN HARFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND…
CENTRAL BALTIMORE COUNTY IN NORTHERN MARYLAND…

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 651 PM EDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JARRETTSVILLE…OR 6 MILES
NORTHEAST OF COCKEYSVILLE…AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
JARRETTSVILLE…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE…MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM. TAKE COVER NOW.

Tornado Warning Update Prince Georges County, Maryland

MDC033-181945-
/O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0042.000000T0000Z-120918T1945Z/
PRINCE GEORGES MD-
330 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR PRINCE
GEORGES COUNTY…

AT 329 PM EDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR BELTSVILLE…AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE…MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS TORNADO MAY BE WRAPPED IN RAIN AND HARD TO SEE. DO NOT WAIT TO
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

Tornado Warning Update Montgomery MD Prince Georges MD

MDC031-033-181945-
/O.CON.KLWX.TO.W.0042.000000T0000Z-120918T1945Z/
MONTGOMERY MD-PRINCE GEORGES MD-
319 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT FOR PRINCE
GEORGES AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES…

AT 318 PM EDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LANGLEY PARK…AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
BELTSVILLE…
CALVERTON…
FAIRLAND…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE…MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS TORNADO MAY BE WRAPPED IN RAIN AND HARD TO SEE. DO NOT WAIT TO
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW.

Tornado Warning Washington, D.C. Montgomery MD Prince Georges MD

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
317 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA…
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND…
NORTHERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND…

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 316 PM EDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS NEAR TAKOMA PARK…OR NEAR FORT TOTTEN…AND WAS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
CHILLUM…
BELTSVILLE…
FAIRLAND…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING AND AVOID WINDOWS. IF OUTDOORS OR IN A MOBILE HOME OR
VEHICLE…MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

THIS TORNADO MAY BE WRAPPED IN RAIN AND HARD TO SEE. TAKE COVER NOW.

Tornado Watch (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Coastal Waters)

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DELAWARE
EASTERN MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1210 PM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF MONTICELLO
NEW YORK TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 641…WW 642…

DISCUSSION…FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION OVER CNTRL PA IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER E NEARER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER…GIVEN THE VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT…SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT TSTMS.
AS BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON…EXPECT A CORRESPONDING ORGANIZATION OF
STORMS INTO LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

Upgrade to Moderate Risk…

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED…FAR NRN SC…CNTRL/ERN NC…CNTRL/ERN VA…DISTRICT
OF COLUMBIA…CNTRL/ERN MD…MUCH OF DE…ERN PA…WRN/NRN
NJ…PARTS OF ERN NY

CONCERNING…OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 181519Z – 181645Z

SUMMARY…A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS PLANNED FOR THE
UPCOMING 1630 UTC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS NWD INTO PARTS OF ERN NY.

DISCUSSION…STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CONUS-FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE QLCS SEGMENTS
ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR OVER THE ERN CONUS. WIDESPREAD SVR WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE UPCOMING MODERATE RISK
AREA…AND SVR WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASED TO 45 PERCENT
ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER…TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE…PARTICULARLY WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES…LINE
BREAKS…AND DISCRETE CONVECTION EVOLVING AHEAD AN APPROACHING
EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE FORTHCOMING OUTLOOK FOR
ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION.

..COHEN/CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/18/2012

Tornado Watch (D.C., Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Coastal Waters)

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
MARYLAND
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1055 AM UNTIL 700
PM EDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
SOUTH HILL VIRGINIA TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BALTIMORE
MARYLAND. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 641…

DISCUSSION…A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TODAY AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS A
VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. CURRENT VAD AND
MODEL FORECAST DATA INDICATE A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF THE
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE
WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED BOW/LEWP AND
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

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