Category Archives: Massachusetts

Nor’Easter #2… #NYwx #PAwx #DEwx #NJwx #CTwx #MAwx #RIwx

Most general forecast models are in agreement with this pending Nor’Easter storm off the middle Atlantic coast. Let’s take a look at some forecast model runs…

GFS:

NAM:

Canadian:

European:

Navy NOGAPS:

The Navy NOGAPS seems to be the outlier in this particular instance. It has the storm center out over the open Atlantic.

The winds and the rain will be the dominant features with this particular storm. However, there is some potential for plenty of snow inland away from the middle Atlantic coast.

NAM:

 GFS:

Although there are clearly differences in the area most at risk of accumulating snow, everyone inland from the middle Atlantic need to monitor this situation. There is the chance that the snow shovels and blowers may get a workout. We will keep you on top of this weather situation here at Weather or Knot. Stay tuned.

Advertisements

Sunday Morning Weather Recap… #OHwx #INwx #MIwx #MAwx #CTwx #NYwx

This morning’s weather map showing fairly quiet weather across much of the US. However, a Nor’Easter could affect much of the middle Atlantic this week. We will dive into the details later on here in this blog posting here on Weather or Knot.

Although low clouds are currently in place here across the Great Lake region, breaks in the cloud cover are possible. Highs today should range from the middle to upper 40s.

As noted earlier, high temperatures should range from the middle to upper 40s across much of the Great Lakes Region. Temperatures will remain fairly steady for highs for the next few days.

Here are the updated model runs for this potential Nor’Easter at midweek in the middle Atlantic…

GFS

European

Canadian

Navy NOGAPS

As you can plainly see, the major forecast models are in general agreement for a potential Nor’Easter at midweek along the middle Atlantic coast. Plenty of rain, wind, and snow will be on tap.

It is starting to look like western Massachusetts, western Connecticut, and far eastern New York state could be the big winner for snowfall. However, this could change. We will keep you updated here on the Weather or Knot blog. Stay tuned.

Tornado Watch (Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, Coastal Waters)

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN CONNECTICUT
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
EASTERN NEW YORK
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
GLENS FALLS NEW YORK TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF POUGHKEEPSIE
NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 641…WW 642…WW
643…WW 644…WW 645…

DISCUSSION…A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE BAND OVER CNTRL NY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE HUDSON
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY…BUT INTENSE VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT. AND WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARD WITH THIS CONVECTIVE BAND…TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING
TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

Tornado Warning Update Berkshire MA

MAC003-082215-
/O.CON.KALY.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120908T2215Z/
BERKSHIRE MA-
552 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY…

AT 550 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SOUTH EGREMONT…
OR NEAR GREAT BARRINGTON…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

Tornado Warning Berkshire MA Columbia NY

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
544 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
SOUTHWESTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS…
SOUTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK…

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 541 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR COPAKE…OR
13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREAT BARRINGTON…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR…
EGREMONT PLAIN…NORTH EGREMONT AND SOUTH EGREMONT BY 555 PM
EDT…

Tornado Watch for New York City…

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN CONNECTICUT
PARTS OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY
SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1120 AM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 35 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NEW YORK
CITY NEW YORK TO 10 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF WESTFIELD
MASSACHUSETTS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 634…

DISCUSSION…PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE BAND AND MOIST AXIS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON…WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BAND IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
AND STRONGER SURFACE HEATING TO THE S. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON…ESPECIALLY INTO THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY…WHERE THE RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE.
MEANWHILE…A FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM FARTHER TO THE
W THIS AFTERNOON…AND MOVE INTO THE WATCH AREA BY THIS EVENING WITH
THE RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS…AS WELL AS TORNADOES
WITH CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE.

Public Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012

…SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES…NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT…

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES…NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
NORTHERN DELAWARE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
NEW JERSEY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT

ELSEWHERE…SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WITH SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THE LINE INTENSIFIES…THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA AND SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE WIND GUSTS OF OVER 70 MPH.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO…TELEVISION…AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES…WARNINGS…AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..BROYLES/MEAD/MOSIER.. 09/08/2012

Tropical Mischief Labor Day Weekend?

Even though this is still way out… I thought I share this with you. The last three Global Forecast System (GFS) model runs have been hinting at possible tropical mischief along the US East Coast Labor Day Weekend. This could still change.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the very latest tropical weather information.

%d bloggers like this: