Category Archives: Michigan

Severe Thunderstorm Watch (Indiana, Michigan, Ohio)

ww0467_radar_big

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 467
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
235 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST INDIANA
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO
LAKE ERIE

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH BEND INDIANA TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
DETROIT MICHIGAN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION…A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE MOVING EWD INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND 30-35 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT THE
RISK FOR A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH LINE
SEGMENTS AND MULTICELL CLUSTERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

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Sunday Morning Weather Recap… #INwx #MIwx #OHwx

IL_IN.ir January 5

SATELLITE: This morning’s infrared satellite map is showing plenty of cloud cover across the Lower Great Lakes region. This has resulted in temperatures staying fairly steady from last night until the morning. Temperatures have been hovering right above freezing for much of last night, and into this morning. The result has been the snowpack starting to melt. With warmer temperatures being forecasted for the next five to seven days, you can say goodbye to the snow on the ground.

Jan 5 AM Surface Map

SURFACE MAP: It is a very quiet surface map here on this early Sunday morning across the region. Not much weather happening around the Great Lakes this morning. The weather pattern will start to get active once again by next weekend. We will go into those particular details later on here in this blog entry.

7 Day Precip Total January 5

RAINFALL FORECAST: A wet seven day period lies ahead. Precipitation amounts across the Lower Great Lakes Region should range from one to 1.75 inches in the next seven days. Most of this precipitation will be in the form of rain.

GFS_3_2013010600_F168_WSPD_500_MB

PLENTY OF WIND: I thought I share this with you. The storm center for next week will feature very strong winds at about 18,000 feet off the ground. Winds in excess of 120-130 mph at that particular level. That is one indicator that this storm has the potential of being a storm to be contended with.

GFS_3_2013010600_F168_TMPF_2_M_ABOVE_GROUND

WARM-UP ON THE WAY: As advertised, plenty of warm air will be flowing into the region as well. Normally one does not see lower to middle 50s at this particular time of the year. However, it looks like that will be the case next weekend across the region.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest weather information. Have a great Sunday!

Saturday Morning Weather Update… #INwx #KYwx #MIwx #OHwx

We are currently tracking the potential for a snowstorm just after Christmas here in the lower Great Lakes region. Let’s take a look at the Hazardous Weather Outlooks from the National Weather Service Forecast Offices in Cleveland, Northern Indiana, and Wilmington, OH…

Cleveland:

OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036>038-047-230930-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
426 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO…NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THE
FIRST ARRIVING LATE CHRISTMAS EVE AND COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Northern Indiana:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
437 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-230945-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MICHIGAN CITY…LA PORTE…SOUTH BEND…
MISHAWAKA…ELKHART…GOSHEN…LAGRANGE…TOPEKA…ANGOLA…
KENDALLVILLE…LIGONIER…AUBURN…GARRETT…KNOX…NORTH JUDSON…
WINAMAC…FRANCESVILLE…PLYMOUTH…BREMEN…ROCHESTER…WARSAW…
WINONA LAKE…COLUMBIA CITY…SOUTH WHITLEY…FORT WAYNE…
MONTICELLO…BROOKSTON…LOGANSPORT…PERU…WABASH…
NORTH MANCHESTER…HUNTINGTON…BLUFFTON…OSSIAN…DECATUR…
BERNE…MARION…HARTFORD CITY…MONTPELIER…PORTLAND…NILES…
BENTON HARBOR…ST. JOSEPH…BUCHANAN…DOWAGIAC…CASSOPOLIS…
STURGIS…THREE RIVERS…COLDWATER…HILLSDALE…BRYAN…WAUSEON…
ARCHBOLD…DEFIANCE…NAPOLEON…PAULDING…ANTWERP…OTTAWA…
PANDORA…VAN WERT…DELPHOS…LIMA
437 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012 /337 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO…
NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW MONDAY.

A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AND THEN LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH
OF THIS STORM REMAINS UNCERTAIN…ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.

Wilmington, OH:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
515 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-231015-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
515 AM EST SAT DEC 22 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA…SOUTHEAST INDIANA…NORTHEAST KENTUCKY…NORTHERN
KENTUCKY…CENTRAL OHIO…MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO…SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO…SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE…TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT THROUGH KENTUCKY INTO WEST
VIRGINIA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT…SPREADING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN THE ATMOSPHERE MAY SUPPORT SOME FREEZING
RAIN AND OR SNOW.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE
CENTER OF THE STORM WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL KEEP COLD AIR OVER THE OHIO VALLEY…WITH THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED TO BE SNOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS STORM.

THE PATH AND STRENGTH OF EITHER OR BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS COULD
CHANGE…SO STAY TUNED TO THE LAST FORECASTS FOR THE MOST UP TO
DATE INFORMATION.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest information on this pending snowstorm.

Mid-Week Storm… #ILwx #INwx #MIwx #OHwx #WIwx

Most forecast model runs are hinting at potentially a major snowstorm somewhere in the Great Lakes the middle of this upcoming week.

Let us take a look at what a few forecast models are showing…

12z Euro:

12zeuro500mbHGHTNA144

12z GFS:

12zgfs500mbHGHTNA144

12z GGEM:

12zggem500mbHGHTNA144

The general idea is there of a big storm to affect the Great Lakes region this upcoming week. However, this is just a projected forecast model. These are not set in stone. Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest on this developing weather situation for this upcoming week. Have a good evening!

Looking Down the Road… #INwx #MIwx #OHwx

Since the system this weekend does not look to be that serious, there are indications in forecast model runs that another storm center may affect the region next weekend. Let’s take a look at a few of these forecast models (these particular model runs took place at 7:00 AM est this morning)…

12z (7:00 AM est) CMC Ensemble:

12zCMCEnsemble

12z (7:00 am est) European:

12zEURO

12z (7:00 am est) Global Forecast System (GFS) Ensemble:

12zGFSEnsemble

These projections are still many days from happening, if they do. However, it is important to give a heads-up. We will be monitoring the situation here in the coming days here on Weather or Knot. Stay tuned.

Pattern Change? #INwx #MIwx #OHwx

This will be a fairly short blog posting. However, it is important enough to warrant a posting. There is the potential for a major change in the weather pattern for next week.

Let’s take a look at three weather models here to see what they have to say…

GFS:

0zGFShr138

Euro:

f168

GFS Ensemble:

GFSEnsemble0zhr138

It is still far enough out there that it is still too early to hammer out the specifics. However, I wanted to give you all a heads-up to this potential. We will keep you up to date here on the Weather or Knot Blog. Have a great Wednesday!

Midday Weather Recap #INwx #KYwx #MIwx #OHwx

The midday satellite picture is showing plenty of clear skies here in the lower Great Lakes, especially in Indiana and Ohio. However, note the clouds down along the Ohio River in South Central Indiana and much of northern Kentucky. Those clouds are in advance of a low pressure area that will bring some light snow down along the Upper Ohio River Valley into much of Kentucky in the next 24-30 hours.

For now, there is a clear scan on weather radar across the Lower Great Lakes region. As noted earlier in this blog posting, some light snow will be showing up on radar. This will occur later tonight, and into Tuesday morning as well.

The surface low pressure area you see there on the morning surface will be the one that could result in light accumulating snowfall across the Middle and Upper Ohio River Valley tonight into tomorrow morning.

This is this morning’s 7:00 AM Global Forecast System (GFS) model run showing the snow potential in the Ohio Valley. Although amounts will be light (as noted above), it will be enough so that you need to use caution on the roads as you head to your destination overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest weather information.

Early Afternoon Weather Recap… #OHwx #INwx #MIwx

The early afternoon visible satellite pictures shows  plenty of cloud cover across the lower Great Lakes region. However…

These clouds are not producing that much in the way of rainfall. As indicated here on weather radar at early afternoon, the showers are widely scattered at best. The amount of rain will be barely enough to wet the pavement and car windshields.

Temperatures by later this afternoon will top off in the middle to upper 50s across much of the lower Great Lakes Region. Areas in Ohio and Indiana down along the Ohio River will feature temperatures in the lower to middle 60s by later this afternoon as well.

However, good things must come to a stop at one time or another. The 12z GFS model run depicted here vaild at 1:00 PM est next Tusday is depicting an area of low pressure down along the Ohio River. The blue lines you see there are temperatures at about 18,000 feet above sea level. Temperatures at 18,000 feet there range from -3°C to -9°C.

Here are the air temperatures right here on ground level, also projected at 1:00 PM est next Tuesday. The white colors you see there are temperatures that are in the lower 30s across the region during this time period.

This could set up in a widespread *light* snowfall across much of Indiana and Ohio. This will not be a big snow by any stretch of the imagination. However, it is one reminder that Winter will be making its presence known. We will continue to monitor this developing situation here on the Weather or Knot Blog. Stay tuned.

Temperature and Precipitation Projection for December 2012… #INwx #MIwx #OHwx

Temperatures are projected to be near normal for Ohio for December. Also for December, precipitation is projected to be above normal, especially in Indiana and Ohio.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest weather information.

Wednesday Evening Weather Recap… #INwx #MIwx #OHwx

This evening’s satellite picture showing an area of high clouds across the Great Lakes region. This cloud cover will persist through the evening. Those clouds will decrease in coverage overnight tonight. These clouds will come back once again tomorrow afternoon. However, no rain will be associated with this cloud cover.

Current temperatures across the Great Lakes region this evening are ranging from the 30s to the lower 40s, with very quiet weather being noted across the region.

Temperatures by tomorrow morning will once again bottom out below freezing, with lows ranging from the middle 20s to near 30.

Highs by tomorrow afternoon will range from the lower to middle 40s. It will be a mostly sunny start to the day. As noted earlier, high clouds will come in during the afternoon to filter the sun some. After tomorrow afternoon, a great weekend is there to be had. Plenty of sun, and slowly moderating temperatures will be on tap as well.

You can forget about rain here in the Great Lakes region for the next five days at least. Not a single drop of rain is being forecasted during this time period.

In summary, a very quiet weather pattern is on tap for the next several days. Stay safe out there. Have a great evening!

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