Category Archives: Minnesota

Severe Thunderstorm Watch (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin)

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URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF LA CROSSE WISCONSIN TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
WATERLOO IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION…TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND POSSIBLE INCREASE THROUGH
LATE EVE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING SE ACROSS REGION IN
CYCLONIC WNWLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW /REF MCD 1577/. STORMS MAY FOCUS IN
TWO AREAS…/1/ ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING SW MN
AND FAR NW IA…AND /2/ ALONG SW-NE LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER NE
IA/SW WI. AMPLE DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION AND SUSTENANCE…AND A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SVR
HAIL/WIND…GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE TO FORCE PARCELS TO
THEIR FCS.

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October 6th, 2012 Weather Recap… #OHwx #INwx #MIwx #ILwx #WIwx #IAwx #MNwx

SURFACE MAP: This morning’s surface map showing a strong October cold front moving through much of the US. This front is ushering in the coolest temperatures since back in early Spring. A very strong area of high pressure is currently moving in to much of the nation, especially east of the Rocky Mountains.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS: Frost advisories/Freeze warnings are now up for much of the Great Lakes region. Parts of Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio are already under freeze watches for tomorrow night into Monday morning. If trends continue to show freezing temperatures for the period, the Freeze Watches will more than likely be upgraded to Freeze warnings for tomorrow night into Monday morning. Essentially, this could end the growing season for much of the region. Make sure to bring in the plants and flowers.

8:00 AM Temperatures Tomorrow…

…and 8:00 AM Temperatures Monday. With these temperature around freezing the next two mornings, widespread frost is very likely. Also, most spots could go below 32° tomorrow and Monday morning. This would result in freeze conditions.

LOOKING AHEAD: The next five to seven days appear to feature near normal temperatures across much of the Great Lakes region. There will be scattered chances of rain showers during the period. Just beyond the seven days, there could be a warmup coming. High pressure will be moving to the east, along with a storm center forming in the northern Plains. This would result in a south to southwest wind, with warmer temperatures as a result. There is still time to watch this situation. We will keep you informed here on Weather or Knot.

NEXT WEATHER RECAP: I fully expect to have the next Weather Recap here on Weather or Knot sometime tomorrow. Stay safe. Have a great day!

Frost on the Pumpkin?

The title of this Weather or Knot blog entry is right on key, especially for the northern Midwest. Those blues indicate temperatures that have a good chance of being below 32° (freezing point) overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Also notice that the area affected by these cold temperatures is widespread, from Madison, WI to Minneapolis, MN, and to Des Moines, IA. This frost/freeze condition overnight tonight in this region will help get the leaf-color changing kick-started.

Tomorrow night, a frost/freeze setup will develop across much of the Great Lakes region, including all of Indiana and Ohio. Although not as cold tomorrow night, temperatures will definitely support a frost. This will not be a major frost. However, it is the signal that leaf colors will start exploding in the region sooner than later.

The precipitation forecast for the next two  to three days showing not much in the forecast. There will be chances of rain showers, possibly a thunderstorm, come the middle of next week. An Autumn-like pattern appears to be starting to setup here in the Great Lakes region.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest weather information.

Rainy Period Tonight… Drying Out Tomorrow…

This morning’s surface map showing a fairly tranquil setting across the Great Lakes region. The cold front you see  there in the central Plains will pass through northern Ohio later tonight and tomorrow morning. The chances are there for a good, soaking rain tonight in the region. There is also the chance for some thunder. However, severe thunderstorms are not expected in this part of Ohio overnight tonight. This storm center will bring an end to the near perfect weather Ohio has had the last several days.

The area of rain and thunder will start to expand across all of northern Ohio later tonight into tomorrow morning. Movement of the rain tonight will be to the east and northeast. Rainfall could be heavy at times tonight, especially in eastern and southern Ohio. Rain totals could get excessive in the same region too. Any severe weather threat tonight will be well to the east of Northwest Ohio.

Rainfall totals could range from hardly any rain in the far northwest part of Ohio to over two inches down along the Ohio River, right at the West Virginia/Kentucky/Ohio triple point. This could still change. After all the rain moves out of Ohio tomorrow, the first full blast of Autumn-like will make its presence known.

Temperatures by Tuesday morning across much of Ohio could easily dip down into the middle and upper 30s. High temperatures this week will range from the middle to upper 60s. This will help the fall foliage kick into high gear. The colors will start to explode in the next two to three weeks.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest weather information.

Sunday Morning Weather Update…

This morning’s surface map shows an area of high pressure in the Upper Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic. The high will give way to a southerly wind today. That will result in temperatures today, under sunny skies, to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A seasonably strong cold front will be moving through much of the Great Lakes region within the next 36-48 hours. The passage of this strong cold front will result in the first sizable blast of Autumn-like air for the entire Great Lakes region. Even though tomorrow’s high temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, the temperatures will start taking a tumble Monday night. By late Tuesday night…

…this blast of Autumn-like air should result in the coldest overnight low temperatures the Great Lakes region has seen since back in the Spring. Some areas in northern Illinois, eastern Iowa, and southern Wisconsin could see a heavy frost with lows dipping, potentially, into the upper 20s and lower 30s. There could still be a period or two of warm weather here in September and October. However, the heat will not be as long-lasting compared to this past Spring and Summer. In this kind of weather pattern, expect the leaves to start the process of changing colors. Leaf-peeking this October could be very good.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest weather information.

Saturday Midday Weather Update…

Temperatures at midday here in the Great Lakes region are very pleasant. The temperatures range from the 60s into the lower 70s.

The nice temperatures today are a result of high pressure anchored over the Great Lakes early this afternoon. The high pressure area will move to the east tomorrow. That will result in a light south wind, and temperatures getting up into the upper 70s to lower 80s with sunny skies. As we get into next week however…

…Another shot of Autumn-like air will be moving through the region early next week. Temperatures could range from 20° to nearly 30° degrees below normal by the middle of next week.

This next blast of Autumn-like air could result in slight snow accumulations (below 1 inch) around the western tip of the Lake Superior coastline from Duluth, Minnesota, wrapping through extreme northern Wisconsin, and into the western tip of upper Michigan. A reminder here that Winter is on its way.

Enjoy this nice stretch of weather. Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest weather information.

Dare I Say… Snow?!?!

As the title of this blog entry says, I must be nuts talking about snow already here in the middle of September. Well, the forecast models, such as the GFS, have been hinting at some snowfall for northeast Minnesota, northern Wisconsin, and western upper Michigan. It will not be an earth-shattering snow. Although, it is there to remind us that Winter is not too far around the corner.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest winter weather information.

Cold and Rainy Period Ahead for the Great Lakes…

As we progress from middle to late September, the forecast models are starting to indicate a trend in reducing the temperatures drastically. Also, chances for above normal precipitation are higher than normal.

This may offer the best chance of the leaves starting to change colors a bit as well.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest weather information.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch (Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Lake Superior)

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST IOWA
FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LAKE SUPERIOR

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.

HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF ELY MINNESOTA TO 35 MILES WEST OF DUBUQUE IOWA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION…TCU/TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM IN AN ARC FROM NERN MN
SWD THROUGH FAR WRN WI INTO SE MN/NE IA…ALONG AN AXIS OF WEAK
LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE AHEAD OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN MODERATE WLY
MID/UPR-LVL FLOW. DEEP EML SAMPLED BY 12Z SOUNDINGS UPSTREAM FROM
REGION…RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LVL MOISTURE SUGGEST GOOD POTENTIAL FOR
LARGE HAIL GIVEN 35-45 KT WLY DEEP SHEAR/LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS.
THE STORMS MAY MERGE INTO SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS CONTAINING E OR
SE-MOVING BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND…AND POSSIBLY
BACK-BUILDING SEGMENTS…WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR HAIL/DMGG WIND.

Mesoscale Discussion – Watch Likely (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin)


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1879
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED…CNTRL AND WRN WI…NERN IA…SERN MN

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY

VALID 041833Z – 042030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…80 PERCENT

SUMMARY…STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIOR BY 20-21Z WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION…A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD TOWARD THE MS
RIVER AND TRAILING SWWD INTO NWRN IA. STRONG HEATING PERSISTS AND CU
FIELDS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOD TO UPPER 80S F WILL ERODE ALL CIN…AND SFC
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE QUITE STEEP…AND WILL SUPPORT RAPID STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK…MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
IS SUBSTANTIAL AND SHOULD SUPPORT LONG LIVED SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS. AS SUCH…VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS STORMS PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COLD
DOWNDRAFTS AND BEGIN TO EXPAND AND FORWARD PROPAGATE LATER TODAY.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 09/04/2012

ATTN…WFO…MQT…GRB…MKX…DVN…DLH…ARX…MPX…DMX…

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