Category Archives: Pennsylvania

Lake Effect Snow Warning Ashtabula OH Erie PA Crawford PA

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
927 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2013

…LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA…

.AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN
BEGIN TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS THE COLD
AIR FILLS IN ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY…TAPERING SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE A CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON MOISTURE
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

OHZ014-089-PAZ001>003-231030-
/O.UPG.KCLE.LE.A.0004.131124T0000Z-131125T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KCLE.LE.W.0010.131123T1700Z-131125T0500Z/
ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…JEFFERSON…ASHTABULA…ERIE…
EDINBORO…MEADVILLE
927 PM EST FRI NOV 22 2013

…LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO
MIDNIGHT EST SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* ACCUMULATIONS…TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
6 INCHES TO AROUND A FOOT WITH HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA WHERE
A CONNECTION TO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE HURON IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

* TIMING…LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING SUNDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY.

* WINDS…NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT…DECREASING ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS…MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS THAT OCCUR WITHIN BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW. BLOWING
AND DRIFTING IS ALSO LIKELY.

* TEMPERATURES…WILL FALL TO THE NEAR 20 DEGREES SATURDAY NIGHT
AND AND HOLD NEARLY STEADY ON SUNDAY.

* VISIBILITIES…COULD BE BELOW A QUARTER OF A MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch (Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia)

Severe T-Storm Watch OH IN KY WV PA

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
345 PM EDT TUE APR 16 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST INDIANA
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OHIO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
PARTS OF NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ATHENS OHIO TO 25 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF AKRON OHIO. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION…THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION
OF AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OHIO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON …WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS IT DEVELOPS EASTWARD OR EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

Storm Update… #INwx #OHwx #PAwx

Well, the potential is growing for a winter storm to affect the region Thursday night and Friday. Here are the following updates from the NWS in Northern Indiana and the NWS in Cleveland…

Northern Indiana:

INZ013-015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-
024-025-191100-
PULASKI-FULTON IN-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-
HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-
DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…WINAMAC…FRANCESVILLE…MEDARYVILLE…
ROCHESTER…AKRON…COLUMBIA CITY…TRI-LAKES…SOUTH WHITLEY…
FORT WAYNE…NEW HAVEN…MONTICELLO…BROOKSTON…MONON…
LOGANSPORT…ROYAL CENTER…PERU…GRISSOM AFB…MEXICO…
WABASH…NORTH MANCHESTER…HUNTINGTON…ROANOKE…BLUFFTON…
OSSIAN…DECATUR…BERNE…MARION…GAS CITY…UPLAND…
HARTFORD CITY…MONTPELIER…PORTLAND…DUNKIRK…BRYAN…
WAUSEON…ARCHBOLD…FAYETTE…SWANTON…DEFIANCE…SHERWOOD…
HICKSVILLE…NAPOLEON…DESHLER…LIBERTY CENTER…PAULDING…
ANTWERP…MELROSE…OTTAWA…PANDORA…KALIDA…FORT JENNINGS…
VAN WERT…DELPHOS…OHIO CITY…LIMA…SPENCERVILLE
745 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

…STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING…

DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING WILL
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY INTO THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS EAST NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST INDIANA BY THURSDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM LATE

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO WRAP IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY EVENING WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LEADING TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF THE
SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES AND
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION MINOR WIND DAMAGE AND
SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES MAY OCCUR.

PERSONS PLANNING TRAVEL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR LATER FORECASTS ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTER STORM.

Cleveland:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK…CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
357 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012
OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-192100-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-
HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
357 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO…NORTHEAST OHIO…NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
.DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. WINDS MAY BE STRONG LATE THURSDAY AND CAUSE GUSTS TO NEAR
50 MPH. RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS COULD
APPROACH ADVISORY OR WARNING THRESHOLDS IN PORTIONS OF THE SNOW
BELT. THE STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW…ESPECIALLY IN THE SNOW BELT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST
FOR UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT…

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Nor’Easter #2… #NYwx #PAwx #DEwx #NJwx #CTwx #MAwx #RIwx

Most general forecast models are in agreement with this pending Nor’Easter storm off the middle Atlantic coast. Let’s take a look at some forecast model runs…

GFS:

NAM:

Canadian:

European:

Navy NOGAPS:

The Navy NOGAPS seems to be the outlier in this particular instance. It has the storm center out over the open Atlantic.

The winds and the rain will be the dominant features with this particular storm. However, there is some potential for plenty of snow inland away from the middle Atlantic coast.

NAM:

 GFS:

Although there are clearly differences in the area most at risk of accumulating snow, everyone inland from the middle Atlantic need to monitor this situation. There is the chance that the snow shovels and blowers may get a workout. We will keep you on top of this weather situation here at Weather or Knot. Stay tuned.

Update on High Wind Warning… #OHwx #PAwx

URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
935 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

.THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SANDY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TOWARD
THE AREA TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG AND
DAMAGING WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-292145-
/O.CON.KCLE.HW.W.0003.121029T1600Z-121030T2000Z/
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-
TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-
MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…TOLEDO…BOWLING GREEN…PORT CLINTON…
FREMONT…SANDUSKY…LORAIN…CLEVELAND…MENTOR…CHARDON…
JEFFERSON…FINDLAY…TIFFIN…NORWALK…MEDINA…AKRON…
RAVENNA…WARREN…UPPER SANDUSKY…CAREY…BUCYRUS…MANSFIELD…
ASHLAND…WOOSTER…CANTON…YOUNGSTOWN…MARION…MOUNT GILEAD…
MILLERSBURG…MOUNT VERNON…ASHTABULA…ERIE…EDINBORO…
MEADVILLE
935 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

…HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY…

* WINDS…NORTH TO NORTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH
WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

* TIMING…LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD START IN A BAND FROM NEAR SANDUSKY AND
VERMILION THROUGH MANSFIELD THEN SPREAD EAST AND WEST FROM THIS
AREA FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS…TREES AND UTILITY LINES WILL BE DOWNED. POWER AND
TRAVEL WILL BE INTERRUPTED IN SOME PLACES. ROOF DAMAGE AND
OTHER STRUCTURAL DAMAGE MAY OCCUR. LOOSE OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN
AROUND. THE LONG DURATION OF THE EVENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE.

Stay with Weather or Knot for continuing coverage of Sandy.

Wet and Windy Start to Next Week Looking More Likely… #OHwx #INwx #MIwx #MDwx #PAwx #WVwx

Here are my two cents on this pending major storm for the lower Great Lakes region. We are starting to transition from possibly a snow threat (that threat is very low right now, and was very low to begin with), to a strong wind/rain storm. Let’s get right into the maps.

1. TEMPERATURES: We are looking here at the 0z North American Model (NAM) data. While we will more than likely remain above freezing here in the lower Great Lakes, our neighbors to the south and the east could see plenty of snow. The pink streak there in far western Maryland and much of eastern West Virginia could be below freezing by early Tuesday morning.

2. PRECIPITATION: Note the two color scales to the right of the projected radar image early Tuesday morning. While it will be mainly rain here in northern Ohio, northeast Indiana, and all of lower Michigan, the  white, blue, and red reflectivity over in parts of eastern Ohio down into West Virginia could be seeing snowy conditions. This could still change.

3. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION: Note the areas in purple to light blue. This is where the best chance for accumulating snowfall. That facet of the storm will more than likely stay down along the upper Ohio River Valley into much of West Virginia, far southwestern Pennsylvania, and into far western Maryland. This is the projected snowfall forecast through early Tuesday morning. The actual snowfall totals will be higher than shown here.

4. THE WIND: One of the other facets for this particular storm will be the wind. Once again, this is the projected wind forecast valid early Tuesday morning. Note the scale to your right. The blue to lighter blue color represent winds sustained at 20-30 mph. However, remember this projected wind forecast only goes out to early Tuesday morning. The wind will be very fiesty throughout the entire day on Tuesday.

Stay with Weather or Knot for continuing coverage of this pending storm.

Tornado Warning Berks County, #Pennsylvania… #PAwx

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
859 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
EASTERN BERKS COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA…
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF READING…

* UNTIL 930 PM EDT

* AT 857 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR READING…
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR…
6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LAURELDALE BY 905 PM EDT…
FLEETWOOD BY 915 PM EDT…
LYONS…6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KUTZTOWN AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BALLY BY 920 PM EDT…
TOPTON BY 925 PM EDT…

Tornado Watch (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Coastal Waters)

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DELAWARE
EASTERN MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1210 PM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF MONTICELLO
NEW YORK TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 641…WW 642…

DISCUSSION…FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION OVER CNTRL PA IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER E NEARER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER…GIVEN THE VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT…SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT TSTMS.
AS BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON…EXPECT A CORRESPONDING ORGANIZATION OF
STORMS INTO LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

Upgrade to Moderate Risk…

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED…FAR NRN SC…CNTRL/ERN NC…CNTRL/ERN VA…DISTRICT
OF COLUMBIA…CNTRL/ERN MD…MUCH OF DE…ERN PA…WRN/NRN
NJ…PARTS OF ERN NY

CONCERNING…OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 181519Z – 181645Z

SUMMARY…A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS PLANNED FOR THE
UPCOMING 1630 UTC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS NWD INTO PARTS OF ERN NY.

DISCUSSION…STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CONUS-FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE QLCS SEGMENTS
ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR OVER THE ERN CONUS. WIDESPREAD SVR WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE UPCOMING MODERATE RISK
AREA…AND SVR WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASED TO 45 PERCENT
ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER…TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE…PARTICULARLY WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES…LINE
BREAKS…AND DISCRETE CONVECTION EVOLVING AHEAD AN APPROACHING
EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE FORTHCOMING OUTLOOK FOR
ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION.

..COHEN/CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/18/2012

Severe Weather Likely Tomorrow on the East Coast…

Part of the text from the Storm Predicton Center Day 2 outlook at 1:31 PM EDT today…

…MID ATLANTIC THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NERN STATES…

IN WAKE OF NWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT…RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH WARM SECTOR ALONG
STRENGTHENING 50+ KT LLJ. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND
WITHIN PLUME OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE…ESPECIALLY IN WRN
PORTION OF WARM SECTOR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT OF
MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO WRN VA.
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY…POSSIBLY SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR. THE
MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE FOR SEVERE STORMS
IS EXPECTED EVOLVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG STRENGTHENING
LLJ AND WHERE A FEW CLOUD BREAKS WILL PROMOTE AT LEAST MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES ARE LIKELY
INCLUDING LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS. A FEW
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO OCCUR IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING OCCURS. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MODERATE RISK IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR THAT MORE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest severe weather information.

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