Category Archives: South Dakota

Severe Thunderstorm Watch (North Dakota, South Dakota)

ww0463_radar

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 463
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF
MOBRIDGE SOUTH DAKOTA TO 60 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE
NORTH DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 462…

DISCUSSION…WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER
SWRN AND NORTH CENTRAL ND IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
EWD FROM MT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE TO
2000 J/KG…AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRESENT TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES.
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE EVENING WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch (Nebraska, South Dakota)

ww0462_radar_big

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
900 PM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF BUFFALO SOUTH DAKOTA TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF BROKEN BOW
NEBRASKA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION…STORMS ARE INCREASING FROM EXTREME SRN SD INTO FAR NRN
NEB AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTS A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FEED…WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE BLACK HILLS
AND INTO FAR NWRN SD. THE AIR MASS IS DESTABILIZING OVER WRN SD IN
THE WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS…WITH STRONG INSTABILITY NOTED SWD INTO
NEB WHERE MLCAPE REACHES 2500-3000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
/30-40 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM AGL/ OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A
SUBTLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EWD ACROSS MT AND WY WILL ENHANCE
SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRONGER STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS…WITH
THE THREAT SPREADING SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

Tornado Warning Update Shannon SD Jackson SD

SDC071-113-190030-
/O.CON.KUNR.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130519T0030Z/
SHANNON SD-JACKSON SD-
549 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL JACKSON AND
NORTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM MDT…

AT 544 PM MDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 32 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARTIN…AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

HAZARD…DEVELOPING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT…MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS…WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
AREAS NORTH OF KYLE AND WEST OF POTATO CREEK.

Tornado Warning Jackson SD Shannon SD

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
538 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RAPID CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
WEST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA…
NORTHEASTERN SHANNON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA…

* UNTIL 630 PM MDT

* AT 535 PM MDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 34 MILES NORTHWEST OF MARTIN…AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD…DEVELOPING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT…MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS…WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN
SHANNON AND WEST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES…INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS…POTATO CREEK.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch (Minnesota, South Dakota, Wisconsin, Lake Superior)

WW0581 WOU

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 581
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   330 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

          MINNESOTA
          NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
          NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
          LAKE SUPERIOR

   EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
   1100 PM CDT.

   HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
   STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
   OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS MINNESOTA TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF REDWOOD
   FALLS MINNESOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 580...

   DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST AND SOUTHEAST
   ACROSS MN...ERN SD AND INTO NWRN WI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
   AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY
   UNSTABLE WITH LATEST MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE
   WRN PORTION OF THE ARROWHEAD OF MN TO OVER 2000 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF
   WRN MN AND NERN SD. THIS INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO FUEL RAPID AND
   ROBUST TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR AND INCREASING ASCENT THAT SHOULD FURTHER SUPPORT STORM
   ORGANIZATION AND UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS MAY BE
   SUPERCELLULAR WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. WITH
   TIME...STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR ALONG OR JUST AHEAD
   OF THE FRONT WITH A SEVERE QLCS/SQUALL LINE EVOLVING. HIGH/DAMAGING
   WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE SQUALL LINE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SRN MN AS WELL AS WRN WI.

Mesoscale Discussion – Watch Likely (Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota)

MD 1766 graphic

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1766
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT WED AUG 15 2012

AREAS AFFECTED…EXTREME SE ND…FAR ERN SD…NW IA…MUCH OF
MN…FAR WRN WI

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY

VALID 151956Z – 152100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…80 PERCENT

SUMMARY…ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY 21Z.
SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS
ALONG COLD FRONT. LARGE HAIL MAY INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO DAMAGING WIND THREAT. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO.

DISCUSSION…AN EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM FAR
NW MN INTO ERN SD AS OF 1930Z. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S. AS SUCH…ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AND UNCAPPED. CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AND THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO LOW TO MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER THAT
DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. HI-RES WRF-NMM…NSSL WRF
AND HRRR ALL INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY AROUND 20-21Z
HOWEVER. LATEST RADAR DATA ALSO SEEMS TO BE INDICATING A SLOW UPWARD
TREND WITH STRONGER CORES DEVELOPING FROM NEAR BELTRAMI TO MAHNOMEN
COUNTY IN NW MN. SO…WHILE CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS LIKELY BEEN
DELAYED DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER…STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED BY 21Z. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 30-50 KT WILL AID
IN ORGANIZATION OF CELLS…WHICH MAY REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE
INITIALLY…INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS ALONG THE FRONT. STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND
THREAT…ESPECIALLY ONCE LINEAR ORGANIZATION OCCURS.
OTHERWISE…STRONGER CELLS MAY INITIALLY ALSO POSE A LARGE HAIL
THREAT.

A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THERE MAY BE THE
NEED FOR TWO SEPARATE WATCHES WHERE CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS
FAR ERN SD INTO NW IA/SW MN MAY BE SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN THAT
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MN.

..LEITMAN/CARBIN.. 08/15/2012

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