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Warmer Temperatures Ahead #OHwx #Ohio #wx

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CLEARING OUT: Clouds are exiting Northwest Ohio tonight. The wind is still a bit feisty out of the west and northwest as well. Temperatures currently across the region are in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Skies will remain generally clear the rest of tonight. Low temperatures by morning are forecast to be in the middle to upper 20s.

SIMPLY PUT: After this morning’s rainfall, the next seven days are forecast to be dry. In fact, even with the light snow forecast for midweek, precipitation totals by next Sunday are forecast to only be around a tenth to a quarter of an inch.

WARMING UP NICELY: The forecast models continue to indicate a nice warming trend heading into next weekend. Temperatures could easily run 25° to 30° above normal for high temperatures by next weekend. Definitely not feeling like Winter.

Stay with the Northwest Ohio Weather Blog for the latest…

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Late Evening Weather Update #OHwx #Ohio #wx

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Weather Radar late this evening shows rainfall developing down in Southwest Ohio, Central Indiana, and Central Illinois. The area will grow in area through the rest of tonight. Most everyone will see some amount of rain. However, most of it should fall while we are sleeping tonight.

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Even at this hour of night, temperatures are still running above normal for this time of year. The cool spot, at Port Clinton, is at 36°. Most of the precipitation tonight will be in the form of rainfall, given these warm temperatures.

Although the rainfall will be widespread overnight, it will not amount to that much overall. On average, rainfall between 1/4 and 1/2″ is forecast. The rainfall will be moving out in the morning.

Like we mentioned earlier, a relatively quiet weather pattern will be the main feature during the upcoming week. Wednesday will offer the only chance at precipitation. That should be mainly in the form of snow.

Stay with the Northwest Ohio Weather Blog for the latest…

Weather Pattern Settling Down #OHwx

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SETTLING DOWN: The weather pattern has continued to be up and down for the last week to ten days. At this time we are on a warming trend, under mostly cloudy skies and a south wind…

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Temperatures currently are running in the upper 20s to the lower and middle 30s. That warm air (darker blue) down in Indiana is making its way towards Northwest Ohio.

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The weather pattern looks to be rather quiet for the most part during the next seven days. Not much precipitation is in the forecast as well. Temperatures through the forecast period will be in the upper 30s to the lower and middle 40s for the most part. No big storm system potential is forecast during the next seven days.

Stay with the Northwest Ohio Weather Blog for the latest…

Rain/Storms Tuesday #OHwx

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PLENTY WARM: For this time of year, it is a very pleasant Monday Evening across Northwest Ohio. Temperatures currently are in the 50s across much of Northwest Ohio. Also, the radar scan is clear as well. The radar will most likely get busy during the next 18 to 24 hours.

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Cloud cover is on the increase this hour as well across Northwest Ohio. This is in advance of an area of low pressure that will develop to our west in the next 12 to 18 hours.

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SEVERE WEATHER RISK: Tuesday will offer a risk of rain and thunderstorms across Northwest Ohio. The main severe weather risk currently looks to be closer to Dayton, Columbus, and Cincinnati. A severe thunderstorm or two up here is not out of the question.

With the relatively warm airmass overhead Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will develop. Also, the amount of instability is not very high across Northwest Ohio. The highest amount of instability looks to be confined to Southwest and Central Ohio.

The passage of the cold front Tuesday evening will bring some wrap around moisture. It could get cold enough for a few snowflakes.

EXTENDED: A fairly active weather pattern will continue through the rest of this week, and into the weekend. Some snow and rain are possible at times, along with colder and warmer periods.

Stay with the Blog for the latest on the Severe Weather Risk for Tuesday…

 

Severe Weather Risk Tuesday

 

Relatively Warm:  For this time of year, it is a very pleasant Sunday afternoon in Northwest Ohio. The wind outside today will definitely get your attention, at 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Tonight will feature dry weather, with low temperatures dropping into the middle 20s.

The continued push of warmer air is forecast to continue into Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures by Tuesday are forecast to be well into the 50s, with the outside chance of a few locations approaching 60°.

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SEVERE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY: A strong area of low pressure is forecast to develop Monday Night and Tuesday in the Lower Great Lakes. That will bring a strong cold front through Northwest Ohio. While the severe weather risk for Tuesday is not as high as down by Dayton and Cincinnati, a few severe thunderstorms can not be ruled out across the region either.

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Coverage of the showers and thunderstorms will increase through the day Tuesday. The main severe weather risk will be from damaging straight line winds. A few reports of large hail is not out of the question either.

EXTENDED: After the low pressure area moves away from Northwest Ohio, colder air will begin to move in. Colder air will be moving in from Wednesday through Friday. Another push of warmer air is possible next weekend. Scattered rain and snow chances are noted through next weekend. 

Stay tuned on the developing severe weather risk for Tuesday here on the Blog…

Storms Possible Early Next Week

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It is still a very dry Saturday in Northwest Ohio. Although precipitation is showing on radar, the airmass is still too dry for any of it to reach the ground. Dewpoints much of today have been in the single digits to the lower teens, while the air temperatures has been in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

WARMING UP: Sunday and Monday will be featuring dry weather across the region, along with temperatures increasing. Sunday will feature high temperatures into the middle 30s. Monday’s high temperatures are forecast to climb into the 40s.

ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS: The dry weather will not last long at all. A strong area of low pressure is forecast to develop generally in the Lower Great Lakes region, as shown here on the 12z NAM & 12z GFS. One of the things this storm could easily bring is strong gusty winds Tuesday.

Also, the amount of the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) & the Energy Helicity Index (EHI) brings in the risk for possible strong thunderstorm activity, with potential of a few severe thunderstorms.

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Much of Northwest Ohio has been included for the risk of severe thunderstorm activity Tuesday from the Storm Prediction Center. The main risks currently look to be from large hail, along with locally damaging winds. While the tornado risk is low, it is non-zero. We will continue to monitor the situation for Tuesday.

QUIETING DOWN: After the low pressure area moves away late Tuesday afternoon and evening, temperatures are forecast to trend to more of a quiet pattern. Some light snow is possible Tuesday evening as the wrap around moisture moves through. Otherwise, the next chance for any precipitation looks to be next weekend.

We will continue to monitor the situation for Tuesday through the next couple of days. Stay tuned.

More Severe Weather in the Forecast #TXwx

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The active weather pattern we are currently in will continue to move right along. While this next storm system will most likely be a multiple-day weather event, we will focus our attention on the Monday threat. This threat includes all of eastern Texas, along with the adjacent states.

12z GFS Hr 108 500mb Absolute Vorticity

That bowling ball feature you see there over Arizona will be the main driving force in the severe weather threat for the first portion of next week across the south. It will begin to take on more of a negative tilt (that is to the left). As a result, severe weather is a definite possibility.

12z GFS Hr 108 Surface Dewpoint 12z GFS Hr 108 SBCAPE

With the storm center in the past couple of days that was lacking moisture, this particular setup will not. Also, the surface based convective available potential energy (SBCAPE) was lacking some. With this particular setup, there is more than sufficient SBCAPE across eastern Texas.

12z GFS Hr 108 Surface Wind 12z GFS Hr 108 850 Wind 12z GFS Hr 108 500 Wind

As was the case with the storm center that caused the severe weather issues in Iowa and Missouri, you have south-southeast to southeast winds at the surface. Going to 850 mb (5,000 feet above ground level), and 500 mb (18,000 feet above ground level), there is changing of wind direction with height. That will aid any thunderstorm development to gain rotation.

12z GFS Hr 108 0-3 km Helicity 12z GFS Hr 108 0-1 km Helicity

The areas you see there in the yellows and oranges feature areas where the helicity in the lowest one kilometer and three kilometers indicate higher potential for more organized updrafts. That would aid in the development of severe thunderstorms with potential to produce tornado activity.

12z GFS Hr 108 0-1 km Shear 12z GFS Hr 108 0-6 km Shear

With shear in the lowest one kilometer exceeding 20 knots shown here, along with the six kilometer shear exceeding 40 knots, that will aid in any thunderstorm’s potential to become supercelluar in nature, and the ability to potentially produce tornado activity.

12z GFS Hr 108 SBCIN

Warm air inversion should not be of particular concern with this setup. The areas in the white and light blue indicate areas where there is basically no cap. As a result, thunderstorms should easily develop.

12z GFS Hr 108 Vorticity Generation Parameter 1km12z GFS Hr 108 0-1 km Energy Helicity Index

With the Vorticity Generation Parameter shown here, it indicates which locations are at highest risk for possible tornado activity. Values over 0.2 indicate the highest potential for such. Much of eastern Texas is at or well above 0.2, nearing 0.4 to 0.5. Those values indicate tornado activity is very much a possibility.

Also to note, the zero to one kilometer Energy Helicity Index is depicting values over one unit across much of eastern Texas. With those values, the chances are higher of strong damaging tornadoes with any discrete supercell thunderstorm that does develop.

We will continue to monitor the very latest on this potential storm situation for you. Stay tuned.

Tornado Warning Southeast of Sacramento, California

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Not too often do you see a tornado warning in California. There is one now for areas Southeast of Sacramento. This discrete storm is moving to the northeast around 25 MPH.

Veterans Day Severe Weather Potential Next Week

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The weather currently is fairly quiet across the US. However, as we move towards the middle of next week, severe weather looks to be a definite possibility across areas from the Southern Plains eastward to the mid-south. Let us get into the details of this particular threat. The forecast model run we will look at for this blog post is this morning’s 12z GFS.

12z GFS 2m Dewpoint 7 PM Wednesday12z GFS SBCAPE 7 PM Wednesday

One factor that we look at is the amount of moisture available. With this particular storm setup, the amount of moisture should not be a factor at all. The amount of surface based Convective Available Potential Energy shown here is a bit deceiving, given the other parameters shown below…

12z GFS Surface Wind 7 PM Wednesday 12z GFS 850mb Wind 7 PM Wednesday 12z GFS 500mb Wind 7 PM Wednesday

With this particular setup, the wind fields are very impressive. In one aspect, note the changing of the wind directions from the surface, to 850 mb (5,000 feet), and 500 mb  (18,000 feet) above ground level. The other aspect is the magnitude of the winds. This aspect looks to be supportive for potential supercell thunderstorm development.

12z GFS 6km Shear 7 PM Wednesday 12z GFS 1km Shear 7 PM Wednesday

The amount of shear being forecast in the lower 1 kilometer and 6 kilometers are more than sufficient for potential supercell thunderstorm development. When you see the reds and purples on the 6 km shear map shown here, this particular aspect would indicate the atmosphere is very unstable.

12z GFS 1km Helicity 7 PM Wednesday 12z GFS 3km Helicity 7 PM Wednesday

Another aspect to look at is the amount of storm relative helicity in the lowest one kilometer and three kilometers. The areas showing in the orange and grey colors are areas which have the highest amounts of helicity. These amounts are far more than sufficient for supercell thunderstorm development, and possible tornado activity.

12z GFS Lifted Condesation Level 7 PM Wednesday 12z GFS 3km Energy Helicity Index 7 PM Wednesday

The Lifted Condesation Level (shown above) indicates areas which would see the best potential for tornado activity. As one can plainly see, the areas in light grey from the lower Great Lakes down to the mid south look to have the best potential for tornado activity. Also, the Energy Helicity Index highlights the same general area for Wednesday Evening’s severe weather potential.

12z GFS 1km Vorticity Generation Parameter 7 PM Wednesday 12z GFS SBCIN 7 PM Wednesday

Two more parameters we look at here are the Vorticity Generation Parameter (VGP), along with the Surface Based Convective Inhibition (SBCIN). With the VGP, it indicates which areas see the best chances for tornado activity. Areas from the mid-south to the lower Great Lakes see such potential. With the SBCIN values shown above, that indicates storm developement should not be hindered that much.

We will be watching the very latest on this developing weather situation for next week here at Weather or Knot. Stay tuned.

Thursday Evening Severe Weather Update

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This evening’s satellite picture showing scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in progress across the Southern Plains. There has been various reports of damage so far today across portions of the Red River Valley on the Oklahoma side.

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Right now, we are focusing on this discrete thunderstorm that has developed near Fort Worth, Texas. A tornado warning is currently in effect for areas northeast of Fort Worth. A confirmed tornado was reported by weather spotters moving northeast at 40 MPH. The possibility is there for more discrete thunderstorms ahead of the squall line through the remainder of the evening.

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Along with the severe thunderstorm watch in effect for eastern Kansas and western Missouri, there are these two tornado watches that are in effect. Watch 531 is in effect through 8:00 PM CST. Watch 533 is in effect through 9:00 PM CST. Along with the damaging straight-line wind threat, a couple of intense tornadoes are not out of the question through the remainder of the evening as well.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the very latest.

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