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Nor’Easter #2… #NYwx #PAwx #DEwx #NJwx #CTwx #MAwx #RIwx

Most general forecast models are in agreement with this pending Nor’Easter storm off the middle Atlantic coast. Let’s take a look at some forecast model runs…

GFS:

NAM:

Canadian:

European:

Navy NOGAPS:

The Navy NOGAPS seems to be the outlier in this particular instance. It has the storm center out over the open Atlantic.

The winds and the rain will be the dominant features with this particular storm. However, there is some potential for plenty of snow inland away from the middle Atlantic coast.

NAM:

 GFS:

Although there are clearly differences in the area most at risk of accumulating snow, everyone inland from the middle Atlantic need to monitor this situation. There is the chance that the snow shovels and blowers may get a workout. We will keep you on top of this weather situation here at Weather or Knot. Stay tuned.

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Tornado Watch (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Coastal Waters)

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DELAWARE
EASTERN MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1210 PM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF MONTICELLO
NEW YORK TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 641…WW 642…

DISCUSSION…FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION OVER CNTRL PA IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER E NEARER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER…GIVEN THE VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT…SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT TSTMS.
AS BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON…EXPECT A CORRESPONDING ORGANIZATION OF
STORMS INTO LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

Upgrade to Moderate Risk…

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED…FAR NRN SC…CNTRL/ERN NC…CNTRL/ERN VA…DISTRICT
OF COLUMBIA…CNTRL/ERN MD…MUCH OF DE…ERN PA…WRN/NRN
NJ…PARTS OF ERN NY

CONCERNING…OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 181519Z – 181645Z

SUMMARY…A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS PLANNED FOR THE
UPCOMING 1630 UTC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS NWD INTO PARTS OF ERN NY.

DISCUSSION…STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CONUS-FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE QLCS SEGMENTS
ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR OVER THE ERN CONUS. WIDESPREAD SVR WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE UPCOMING MODERATE RISK
AREA…AND SVR WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASED TO 45 PERCENT
ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER…TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE…PARTICULARLY WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES…LINE
BREAKS…AND DISCRETE CONVECTION EVOLVING AHEAD AN APPROACHING
EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE FORTHCOMING OUTLOOK FOR
ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION.

..COHEN/CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/18/2012

Public Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2012

…SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES…NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT…

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES…NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
NORTHERN DELAWARE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
NEW JERSEY
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VERMONT

ELSEWHERE…SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT WITH SQUALL-LINE DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THE LINE INTENSIFIES…THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA AND SOME LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE WIND GUSTS OF OVER 70 MPH.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO…TELEVISION…AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES…WARNINGS…AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..BROYLES/MEAD/MOSIER.. 09/08/2012

Tornado Warning for Dover, Delaware 3:25pm edt

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
325 PM EDT MON SEP 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHERN KENT COUNTY IN CENTRAL DELAWARE…
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DOVER…

* UNTIL 400 PM EDT

* AT 320 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR CAMDEN…OR
NEAR DOVER…MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR…
DOVER BY 330 PM EDT…
DOVER SPEEDWAY BY 335 PM EDT…
CHESWOLD BY 340 PM EDT…
SMYRNA AND 6 MILES EAST OF CLAYTON BY 355 PM EDT…

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