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Mesoscale Discussion… for Flooding…

This particular mesoscale discussion is courtesy of the Weather Prediction Center…

mcd0022

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0022
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
759 AM EDT SUN APR 28 2013

AREAS AFFECTED……NORTHEASTERN AL/NORTHERN GA/EASTERN TN

CONCERNING…HEAVY RAINFALL…FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 281159Z – 281429Z

SUMMARY…STRONG CONVECTION MAINTAINED FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY
WILL BRING A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER AREAS OF NORTHERN
GEORGIA THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION…A NOCTURNAL COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS TO HAVE MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY PER IR SATELLITE TRENDS
AND LIGHTNING DATA. THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO BELIEVE THIS AXIS OF
CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS AN AREA OF DIMINISHED 3-HOUR FFG
VALUES. IT APPEARS THIS THREAT SHOULD MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE ATLANTA METRO AREA. THE 850-MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO PUMP SOME
OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY…MOST OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AREA WILL BE IMPACTED BY 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS IN 6 HOURS WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
SUPPORT INCLUDES THE 00Z SPC WRF/00Z HIGH-RES WRF-NMM ALONG WITH
DETERMINISTIC RUNS FROM THE 06Z NAM/GFS.

RUBIN-OSTER
ATTN…WFO…GSP…MRX…FFC…BMX…HUN…

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch (Northern Alabama, Northwest Georgia)

ww0143_overview_big_wou

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
525 PM CDT SAT APR 27 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
NORTHWEST GEORGIA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 525 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HUNTSVILLE ALABAMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BIRMINGHAM
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 141…WW 142…

DISCUSSION…LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION…ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF A
SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE …IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN CONJUNCTION
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR…DISCRETE STORMS…INCLUDING ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS…MAY EVOLVE INTO AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING ORGANIZED
CLUSTER OF STORMS BY THIS EVENING. GIVEN SOMEWHAT MARGINAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY…THE RISK FOR TORNADOES…WHILE
PERHAPS NOT COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE DUE TO SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR…APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW…WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS.

Tornado Watch (Florida, Georgia, Coastal Waters)

ww0106_radar_big

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 106
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO 50 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF MELBOURNE
FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 105…

DISCUSSION…INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING…WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
FORMING OR SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST…ALONG A WARM FRONTAL ZONE
ADVANCING NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AND
ROTATION DEVELOPING IN STRONGEST UPDRAFTS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK
FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES…PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTH
CENTRAL PENINSULA.

Tornado Warning Gadsden FL Decatur GA Seminole GA

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
413 PM EDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHWESTERN GADSDEN COUNTY IN FLORIDA…
SOUTHWESTERN DECATUR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA…
SOUTHEASTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA…

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 412 PM EDT…A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEAR FAIRCHILD…MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
DRAKES STILL…DESSER…SEMINOLE STATE PARK…LAKE SEMINOLE…
REYNOLDSVILLE…JINKS…BETHANY…OAK GROVE…MOUNT PLEASANT AND
RECOVERY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
MOVE TO A HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
OUTSIDE WALLS.

Tornado Warning Crisp GA Dooly GA Wilcox GA

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
756 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHERN CRISP COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHERN DOOLY COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
WILCOX COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 753 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 9 MILES WEST OF
VIENNA…MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PITTS…PINEVIEW…ROCHELLE AND ABBEVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR…IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND…OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM…MOVE INDOORS AND TO A
BASEMENT OR INTERIOR ROOM ON THE GROUND FLOOR. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING…DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE…HAIL OR FLOODING…WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED…AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8
6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6. YOU CAN ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG GAWX.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA.

Tornado Warning Henry GA Newton GA Rockdale GA

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
618 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
NEWTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHERN ROCKDALE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 612 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
STOCKBRIDGE…MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PORTERDALE…OXFORD AND COVINGTON.

Tornado Warning Butts GA Lamar GA Meriwether GA Pike GA Spalding GA

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
608 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN BUTTS COUNTY IN CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHERN LAMAR COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHERN MERIWETHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHERN SPALDING COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 603 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
LUTHERSVILLE…MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE NOW!

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GAY…CONCORD…WILLIAMSON…ZEBULON…MEANSVILLE…GRIFFIN…
ORCHARD HILL…MILNER…ALDORA AND BARNESVILLE.

Tornado Warning near Atlanta, Georgia #GAwx

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
600 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHERN COBB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHWESTERN DEKALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
FORSYTH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHEASTERN FULTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHWESTERN GWINNETT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHERN BARTOW COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
NORTHERN PAULDING COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
NORTHEASTERN POLK COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 557 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMA CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR TAYLORSVILLE…
MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF ROTATION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
A TORNADO SOUTHEAST OF BRASWELL.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
EMERSON…ACWORTH…KENNESAW…MARIETTA…WOODSTOCK…HOLLY
SPRINGS…CANTON…MOUNTAIN PARK…SANDY SPRINGS…BUFFINGTON…
ROSWELL…DUNWOODY…ALPHARETTA…MILTON…FREE HOME…NORCROSS…
BERKELEY LAKE…JOHNS CREEK…DULUTH…CUMMING AND SUWANEE.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Fayette GA Coweta GA Meriwether GA Pike GA Spalding GA Troup GA

I normally do not post severe thunderstorm warnings here on the Weather or Knot Blog. However, the severe weather outbreak today in Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi has been serious.

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA
SOUTHERN COWETA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHERN MERIWETHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHWESTERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
WESTERN SPALDING COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA
NORTHEASTERN TROUP COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 544 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZED HAIL…AND
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS CENTERED 3 MILES WEST OF
GRANTSVILLE…MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. PERSONS IN GRANTSVILLE NEED TO
MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE ON NOW!

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MORELAND…LUTHERSVILLE…HARALSON…SENOIA AND BROOKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH…PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. PEOPLE OUTSIDE
SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER…PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF YOU SEE WIND DAMAGE…HAIL OR FLOODING…WAIT UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED…AND THEN CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT 1 8
6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6. YOU CAN ALSO TWEET YOUR REPORT USING HASHTAG GAWX.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT MONDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

Tornado Warning Chattooga GA Floyd GA Gordon GA Murray GA Walker GA Whitfield GA

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
531 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHEASTERN CHATTOOGA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
NORTHEASTERN FLOYD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
NORTHERN GORDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
MURRAY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
SOUTHERN WALKER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA
SOUTHERN WHITFIELD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 525 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH TWO AREAS OF ROTATION. ONE IS 2 MILES
NORTHWEST OF CENTER POST AND ANOTHER IS 2 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TRION.
THESE STORMS ARE MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
CALHOUN…RESACA…DALTON…CHATSWORTH AND ETON.

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