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Tornado Warning Chautauqua NY

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
439 PM EDT FRI MAY 10 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK…
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FREDONIA…

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 435 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 3 MILES SOUTH OF
WESTFIELD…OR 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FREDONIA…MOVING NORTHEAST AT
35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SILVER CREEK

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Nor’Easter #2… #NYwx #PAwx #DEwx #NJwx #CTwx #MAwx #RIwx

Most general forecast models are in agreement with this pending Nor’Easter storm off the middle Atlantic coast. Let’s take a look at some forecast model runs…

GFS:

NAM:

Canadian:

European:

Navy NOGAPS:

The Navy NOGAPS seems to be the outlier in this particular instance. It has the storm center out over the open Atlantic.

The winds and the rain will be the dominant features with this particular storm. However, there is some potential for plenty of snow inland away from the middle Atlantic coast.

NAM:

 GFS:

Although there are clearly differences in the area most at risk of accumulating snow, everyone inland from the middle Atlantic need to monitor this situation. There is the chance that the snow shovels and blowers may get a workout. We will keep you on top of this weather situation here at Weather or Knot. Stay tuned.

Sunday Morning Weather Recap… #OHwx #INwx #MIwx #MAwx #CTwx #NYwx

This morning’s weather map showing fairly quiet weather across much of the US. However, a Nor’Easter could affect much of the middle Atlantic this week. We will dive into the details later on here in this blog posting here on Weather or Knot.

Although low clouds are currently in place here across the Great Lake region, breaks in the cloud cover are possible. Highs today should range from the middle to upper 40s.

As noted earlier, high temperatures should range from the middle to upper 40s across much of the Great Lakes Region. Temperatures will remain fairly steady for highs for the next few days.

Here are the updated model runs for this potential Nor’Easter at midweek in the middle Atlantic…

GFS

European

Canadian

Navy NOGAPS

As you can plainly see, the major forecast models are in general agreement for a potential Nor’Easter at midweek along the middle Atlantic coast. Plenty of rain, wind, and snow will be on tap.

It is starting to look like western Massachusetts, western Connecticut, and far eastern New York state could be the big winner for snowfall. However, this could change. We will keep you updated here on the Weather or Knot blog. Stay tuned.

Some Dual-Pol Awesomeness Here… #OHwx #PAwx #NYwx

For this example, we are looking at the doppler radar from Buffalo, New York. Their doppler radar now has dual-pol technology. Let’s get right into it…

First, the normal Base Reflectivity:

Here is the Base Reflectivity radar image here at mid-evening across western New York. That is the normal radar you are used to seeing on your local television station. With the new dual-pol technology being implemented across the US, we now can go “inside” the BR radar image, and see what is actually falling.

This is what I was referring to as looking “inside” the Base Reflectivity radar image you are used to seeing. This image is known as the Hydrometeor Classification Algorithm (HCA).

To help decode what the initials on the left hand side mean, let’s see what they mean:

  • BI : Birds and Insects
  • GC: Ground Clutter (Buildings, Cars, Trees, etc)
  • IC: Ice Crystals
  • DS: Dry Snow
  • WS: Wet Snow
  • RA: Light to Moderate Rain
  • HR: Heavy Rain
  • BD: Big Drops of Rain
  • GR: Grapuel (includes soft ice, slush, snow pellets)
  • HA: Hail (Pure or Mixed with rain)
  • UK: Unknown (Not certain to pick out what is actually falling)
  • RF: Noise on Radar

Let’s go back to the bottom radar image I posted on here from the National Weather Service Dual-Pol Doppler Radar out of Buffalo, New York. The light green you see there (RA) shows where the light rain is falling. The pink areas (GR) show where the graupel is falling and mixing in with the rain. the baby blue colors (DS) show where snow is falling aloft. In this particular instance, these snowflakes are melting before they reach the surface. As a result, rain would most likely be the form of precipitation.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest weather information.

Tornado Watch (Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, Coastal Waters)

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 646
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
340 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN CONNECTICUT
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
EASTERN NEW YORK
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 340 PM UNTIL
1100 PM EDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
GLENS FALLS NEW YORK TO 10 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF POUGHKEEPSIE
NEW YORK. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 641…WW 642…WW
643…WW 644…WW 645…

DISCUSSION…A STRONGLY FORCED CONVECTIVE BAND OVER CNTRL NY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT PROGRESSES EWD THROUGH THE HUDSON
VALLEY THIS EVENING. AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY…BUT INTENSE VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR
ASCENT. AND WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARD WITH THIS CONVECTIVE BAND…TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OWING
TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW LCL/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

Tornado Watch (New York State)

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
UTICA NEW YORK TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BINGHAMTON NEW YORK. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 641…WW 642…WW
643…WW 644…

DISCUSSION…A FORCED CONVECTIVE BAND OVER S-CNTRL NY IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AND GRADUAL DEVELOP NWD WHILE AT THE SAME TIME ADVANCING
EWD. AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE BUT STRONGLY
SHEARED AND FORCED WHICH WILL PROMOTE EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES AND
MESOVORTICES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

Tornado Watch (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Coastal Waters)

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DELAWARE
EASTERN MARYLAND
NEW JERSEY
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1210 PM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.

TORNADOES…HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF MONTICELLO
NEW YORK TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PHILADELPHIA PENNSYLVANIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 641…WW 642…

DISCUSSION…FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION OVER CNTRL PA IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE STORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER E NEARER TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR
MASS DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER…GIVEN THE VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT…SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT TSTMS.
AS BOTH VERTICAL SHEAR AND FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON…EXPECT A CORRESPONDING ORGANIZATION OF
STORMS INTO LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

Upgrade to Moderate Risk…

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

AREAS AFFECTED…FAR NRN SC…CNTRL/ERN NC…CNTRL/ERN VA…DISTRICT
OF COLUMBIA…CNTRL/ERN MD…MUCH OF DE…ERN PA…WRN/NRN
NJ…PARTS OF ERN NY

CONCERNING…OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 181519Z – 181645Z

SUMMARY…A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS PLANNED FOR THE
UPCOMING 1630 UTC DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS NWD INTO PARTS OF ERN NY.

DISCUSSION…STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
CONUS-FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE QLCS SEGMENTS
ACROSS A BROAD WARM SECTOR OVER THE ERN CONUS. WIDESPREAD SVR WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE UPCOMING MODERATE RISK
AREA…AND SVR WIND PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASED TO 45 PERCENT
ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER…TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE…PARTICULARLY WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES…LINE
BREAKS…AND DISCRETE CONVECTION EVOLVING AHEAD AN APPROACHING
EXTENSIVE COLD FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE FORTHCOMING OUTLOOK FOR
ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION.

..COHEN/CARBIN/MEAD.. 09/18/2012

Severe Weather Likely Tomorrow on the East Coast…

Part of the text from the Storm Predicton Center Day 2 outlook at 1:31 PM EDT today…

…MID ATLANTIC THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NERN STATES…

IN WAKE OF NWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT…RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH WARM SECTOR ALONG
STRENGTHENING 50+ KT LLJ. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND
WITHIN PLUME OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE…ESPECIALLY IN WRN
PORTION OF WARM SECTOR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT OF
MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO WRN VA.
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY…POSSIBLY SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR. THE
MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE FOR SEVERE STORMS
IS EXPECTED EVOLVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG STRENGTHENING
LLJ AND WHERE A FEW CLOUD BREAKS WILL PROMOTE AT LEAST MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES ARE LIKELY
INCLUDING LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS. A FEW
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO OCCUR IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING OCCURS. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MODERATE RISK IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR THAT MORE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest severe weather information.

Tornado Warning Berkshire MA Columbia NY

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
544 PM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR…
SOUTHWESTERN BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS…
SOUTH CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK…

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 541 PM EDT…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR COPAKE…OR
13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREAT BARRINGTON…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR…
EGREMONT PLAIN…NORTH EGREMONT AND SOUTH EGREMONT BY 555 PM
EDT…

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