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Severe Thunderstorm Watch (Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin)

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URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 745 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE…
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF LA CROSSE WISCONSIN TO 30 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
WATERLOO IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION…TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND POSSIBLE INCREASE THROUGH
LATE EVE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING SE ACROSS REGION IN
CYCLONIC WNWLY MID/UPR LVL FLOW /REF MCD 1577/. STORMS MAY FOCUS IN
TWO AREAS…/1/ ALONG/AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING SW MN
AND FAR NW IA…AND /2/ ALONG SW-NE LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS OVER NE
IA/SW WI. AMPLE DEEP WNWLY SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION AND SUSTENANCE…AND A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SVR
HAIL/WIND…GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE TO FORCE PARCELS TO
THEIR FCS.

Mid-Week Storm… #ILwx #INwx #MIwx #OHwx #WIwx

Most forecast model runs are hinting at potentially a major snowstorm somewhere in the Great Lakes the middle of this upcoming week.

Let us take a look at what a few forecast models are showing…

12z Euro:

12zeuro500mbHGHTNA144

12z GFS:

12zgfs500mbHGHTNA144

12z GGEM:

12zggem500mbHGHTNA144

The general idea is there of a big storm to affect the Great Lakes region this upcoming week. However, this is just a projected forecast model. These are not set in stone. Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest on this developing weather situation for this upcoming week. Have a good evening!

October 6th, 2012 Weather Recap… #OHwx #INwx #MIwx #ILwx #WIwx #IAwx #MNwx

SURFACE MAP: This morning’s surface map showing a strong October cold front moving through much of the US. This front is ushering in the coolest temperatures since back in early Spring. A very strong area of high pressure is currently moving in to much of the nation, especially east of the Rocky Mountains.

FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS: Frost advisories/Freeze warnings are now up for much of the Great Lakes region. Parts of Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio are already under freeze watches for tomorrow night into Monday morning. If trends continue to show freezing temperatures for the period, the Freeze Watches will more than likely be upgraded to Freeze warnings for tomorrow night into Monday morning. Essentially, this could end the growing season for much of the region. Make sure to bring in the plants and flowers.

8:00 AM Temperatures Tomorrow…

…and 8:00 AM Temperatures Monday. With these temperature around freezing the next two mornings, widespread frost is very likely. Also, most spots could go below 32┬░ tomorrow and Monday morning. This would result in freeze conditions.

LOOKING AHEAD: The next five to seven days appear to feature near normal temperatures across much of the Great Lakes region. There will be scattered chances of rain showers during the period. Just beyond the seven days, there could be a warmup coming. High pressure will be moving to the east, along with a storm center forming in the northern Plains. This would result in a south to southwest wind, with warmer temperatures as a result. There is still time to watch this situation. We will keep you informed here on Weather or Knot.

NEXT WEATHER RECAP: I fully expect to have the next Weather Recap here on Weather or Knot sometime tomorrow. Stay safe. Have a great day!

Friday Late Evening Weather Recap…

SUMMARY: The Friday evening surface map shows high pressure settling into the Great Lakes region. This will provide a great weekend for most of the region. As you will see here later on in this Wx or Kt blog entry, temperatures will be right around normal. With these cool nights plus warm afternoons, the Fall Foliage will start to kick into high gear in the next week or two.

FALL FOLIAGE: About 95-98% of Ohio now starting to see the colors of Autumn settle in. This map is courtesy of the Weather Channel. Expect this map to get darker with color, as the colors really start to stand out here in the Great Lakes Region. Like I noted earlier, cool nights + warm afternoons = Spectacular colors. Enjoy. ­čÖé

RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND?: Earlier in the blog entry I had talked about how most of the Great Lakes region would be mainly dry this weekend. For Ohio though, that is a different story. There will chances for scattered showers this weekend. Rainfall amounts will not be excessive. Most places will stay under a quarter of an inch. East-Central Ohio stands to see the most rain this weekend. Even that will be under an inch at most. Do not cancel your weekend plans. Just make sure to take the umbrella with you this weekend to dodge those rain drops.

LOOK AHEAD: A dry weather pattern will be the main rule in the next five to seven days. There will be chances for rain showers scattered in the time period. By the end of next week, the Global Forecast System Model (GFS) is depicting a deepening area of low pressure across the upper Great Lakes region. That will drag a cold front into the area, with chances for rain. After that system passes, a blast of cool, Autumn air will pay a visit to the Great Lakes. Some places next Saturday morning could be well below freezing in the region. Highs could barely making it out of the 50s. It is still way out there. However, that will continue to be monitored.

SOCIAL MEDIA: You can find me on Facebook , Twitter, and Google Plus.

The next Weather Recap will be sometime this weekend. Enjoy the pleasant temperatures!

Midday Weather Recap…

Temperatures this morning are still seasonably cool. However, they are much warmer this morning than the frosty start to the day today.

Morning low temperatures across Ohio…

  • Findlay 33┬░
  • Toledo 35┬░
  • Defiance 33┬░
  • Lima 35┬░
  • Wooster 33┬░
  • Cleveland 42┬░
  • Akron/Canton 39┬░
  • Cincinnati 36┬░
  • Columbus 39┬░

Wednesday will offer the best chance for showers and thunderstorms across all of Ohio. Although at this time widespread severe weather is not expected, there could be a severe storm or two across the Buckeye State on Wednesday. We will keep you posted.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest weather information.

Frost on the Pumpkin?

The title of this Weather or Knot blog entry is right on key, especially for the northern Midwest. Those blues indicate temperatures that have a good chance of being below 32┬░ (freezing point) overnight tonight into tomorrow morning. Also notice that the area affected by these cold temperatures is widespread, from Madison, WI to Minneapolis, MN, and to Des Moines, IA. This frost/freeze condition overnight tonight in this region will help get the leaf-color changing kick-started.

Tomorrow night, a frost/freeze setup will develop across much of the Great Lakes region, including all of Indiana and Ohio. Although not as cold tomorrow night, temperatures will definitely support a frost. This will not be a major frost. However, it is the signal that leaf colors will start exploding in the region sooner than later.

The precipitation forecast for the next two  to three days showing not much in the forecast. There will be chances of rain showers, possibly a thunderstorm, come the middle of next week. An Autumn-like pattern appears to be starting to setup here in the Great Lakes region.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest weather information.

Mesoscale Discussion 1950 (Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin)

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

   AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI...SERN WI...NRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 171830Z - 171930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A HAIL THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER TSTMS FORMING
   ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
   FARTHER SE THIS AFTERNOON INTO PARTS OF SERN WI AND NRN IL. A FEW OF
   THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...BUT
   A WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN LOWER MI
   EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS LM TOWARDS THE IA/IL BORDER...ATTENDANT TO A
   WEAK SFC LOW POSITIONED W OF APN. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
   THE COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS...HAVE
   SUSTAINED TSTMS OVER NRN LOWER MI...OCCASIONALLY DISPLAYING THE
   POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE
   BEGUN TO DEVELOP MORE RECENTLY FARTHER S ACROSS ERN IA/SRN WI. THE
   COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
   EWD...WHERE STRONGER HEATING HAS OCCURRED WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
   THE 70S F. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE HAVE YIELDED ESTIMATED MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.
   STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL FLOW...AND RESULTANT EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 40
   KTS...WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
   ACCOMPANYING THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CORES...DESPITE THE PRESENCE
   OF WEAK INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE MAGNITUDE/AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
   HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT WW CONSIDERATION.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 09/17/2012

Rainy Period Tonight… Drying Out Tomorrow…

This morning’s surface map showing a fairly tranquil setting across the Great Lakes region. The cold front you see ┬áthere in the central Plains will pass through northern Ohio later tonight and tomorrow morning. The chances are there for a good, soaking rain tonight in the region. There is also the chance for some thunder. However, severe thunderstorms are not expected in this part of Ohio overnight tonight. This storm center will bring an end to the near perfect weather Ohio has had the last several days.

The area of rain and thunder will start to expand across all of northern Ohio later tonight into tomorrow morning. Movement of the rain tonight will be to the east and northeast. Rainfall could be heavy at times tonight, especially in eastern and southern Ohio. Rain totals could get excessive in the same region too. Any severe weather threat tonight will be well to the east of Northwest Ohio.

Rainfall totals could range from hardly any rain in the far northwest part of Ohio to over two inches down along the Ohio River, right at the West Virginia/Kentucky/Ohio triple point. This could still change. After all the rain moves out of Ohio tomorrow, the first full blast of Autumn-like will make its presence known.

Temperatures by Tuesday morning across much of Ohio could easily dip down into the middle and upper 30s. High temperatures this week will range from the middle to upper 60s. This will help the fall foliage kick into high gear. The colors will start to explode in the next two to three weeks.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest weather information.

Sunday Morning Weather Update…

This morning’s surface map shows an area of high pressure in the Upper Ohio Valley into the mid-Atlantic. The high will give way to a southerly wind today. That will result in temperatures today, under sunny skies, to top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A seasonably strong cold front will be moving through much of the Great Lakes region within the next 36-48 hours. The passage of this strong cold front will result in the first sizable blast of Autumn-like air for the entire Great Lakes region. Even though tomorrow’s high temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, the temperatures will start taking a tumble Monday night. By late Tuesday night…

…this blast of Autumn-like air should result in the coldest overnight low temperatures the Great Lakes region has seen since back in the Spring. Some areas in northern Illinois, eastern Iowa, and southern Wisconsin could see a heavy frost with lows dipping, potentially, into the upper 20s and lower 30s. There could still be a period or two of warm weather here in September and October. However, the heat will not be as long-lasting compared to this past Spring and Summer. In this kind of weather pattern, expect the leaves to start the process of changing colors. Leaf-peeking this October could be very good.

Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest weather information.

Saturday Midday Weather Update…

Temperatures at midday here in the Great Lakes region are very pleasant. The temperatures range from the 60s into the lower 70s.

The nice temperatures today are a result of high pressure anchored over the Great Lakes early this afternoon. The high pressure area will move to the east tomorrow. That will result in a light south wind, and temperatures getting up into the upper 70s to lower 80s with sunny skies. As we get into next week however…

…Another shot of Autumn-like air will be moving through the region early next week. Temperatures could range from 20┬░ to nearly 30┬░ degrees below normal by the middle of next week.

This next blast of Autumn-like air could result in slight snow accumulations (below 1 inch) around the western tip of the Lake Superior coastline from Duluth, Minnesota, wrapping through extreme northern Wisconsin, and into the western tip of upper Michigan. A reminder here that Winter is on its way.

Enjoy this nice stretch of weather. Stay with Weather or Knot for the latest weather information.

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